Kerry Back
But the gain or loss from gambling is average gain per gamble \(\times\) number of gambles.
Based on history, the bet is definitely in our favor.
Play for a long time \(\Rightarrow\) almost certainly come out ahead.
But how far ahead is quite uncertain.
mean 31.73
std 30.12
min 1.02
10% 7.31
25% 12.43
50% 22.97
75% 40.78
90% 62.01
max 284.31
dtype: float64
Uncertainty about long-run returns \(\Rightarrow\) uncertainty about retirement plans.